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India-US Trade Deal: Russian Oil Pause, Lower Tariffs, and a $500 Billion Promise

Published On: February 4, 2026
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Big news out of Washington and New Delhi — the US and India just shook hands on a new trade deal, and there’s a lot packed in. The headline? India agreed, at least according to Washington, to stop or cut back on Russian oil imports. This move comes as both countries try to smooth out old trade scuffles and get business moving again.

The White House put out a statement after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump talked trade, tariffs, and energy. Trump said India promised to quit Russian oil and instead pick up more barrels from the US — and maybe even Venezuela. The idea is to diversify India’s energy sources and, not coincidentally, strengthen ties with American suppliers.

On the money front, Trump announced that the US is dropping tariffs on Indian goods from sky-high rates (some as steep as 50%) down to about 18%. That’s a huge cut, meant to get trade flowing and help both economies. Trump also set a bold target: he wants India to buy up to $500 billion worth of US products, from energy to manufactured goods. It’s an ambitious number, no doubt.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Indian officials aren’t exactly shouting this deal from the rooftops. India’s Trade Minister made it clear — energy security comes first, and any big shifts in oil buying will depend on local needs, not just pressure from Washington. Analysts watching the numbers say India already cut back on Russian oil, but a total stop isn’t official yet.

Investors aren’t sure what to make of all this. Some are hopeful — lower tariffs and new supply deals could mean big business. Others are worried about how these changes will shake up energy prices and trade balances. Back in India, opposition parties are raising eyebrows, demanding more details and warning about giving away too much.

So, what does this actually mean for India’s energy game plan? India has always mixed up its energy sources, and cheap Russian oil has been a big piece of the puzzle. But after months of global tension over Ukraine, New Delhi is rethinking things. Still, even with pressure from the US, Indian oil companies can’t just flip a switch. Moving away from Russian crude and locking in new deals will take time — and probably a few more rounds of negotiation.

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